Research

Notes from the desk.

Four ongoing series. Equity write-ups, weekly notes on markets and positioning, frameworks on the craft, and quantitative studies. Written for ourselves first.

Series 01

Equity Research

Single-name deep dives. Companies we underwrite, follow, or pass on — including the ones we got wrong.

15 Jul 2026
The Bid Is the Floor. — PayPal (PYPL): Stripe/Advent's $60.50 offer prices the company at a 10% FCF yield. The process is not over.
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07 Jul 2026
The Free Kingdom. — Disney (DIS): price its streaming subs at Netflix's $1,000-per-user market rate and the parks, the studio, ESPN, and ABC are implied to be worth less than nothing.
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Series 02

Weekly Research

What moved markets this week, what we're watching, what we're acting on. Short, specific, and intended to age well.

28 Jun 2026
The Ballast. — On the chip unwind, Micron's down week despite a blockbuster quarter, and the case for staples and defensives.
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17 May 2026
The Other 493. — On Friday's selloff, the Hormuz overhang, and the case for a broader tape.
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Series 03

General Thoughts

Frameworks, mental models, and observations on the craft — sizing, conviction, drawdowns, and the things process can't fix.

No notes yet — first publication forthcoming.
Series 04

Studies

Quantitative work and historical analysis. What the data actually says, with the assumptions made plain.

No notes yet — first publication forthcoming.